Les plus de 65 ans devraient représenter près de 17% des habitants de la planète d’ici 2050 contre 8,5% actuellement, selon un rapport du Bureau américain du recensement.
Selon ces projections du Census Bureau, les seniors devraient être 1,6 milliard d’ici 2050, contre 617 millions aujourd’hui.
« Les personnes plus âgées représentent une proportion de la population mondiale qui s’accroit rapidement », a souligné le Dr Richard Hodes, directeur de l’Institut national américain du vieillissement (NIA), composante des Instituts nationaux de la santé (NIH).
« Les gens vivent plus longtemps mais pas nécessairement en meilleure santé… et cette population vieillissante pose plusieurs défis de santé publique auxquels nous devons nous préparer », a-t-il ajouté dans un communiqué.
« Nous constatons un vieillissement dans tous les pays du monde », a précisé John Haaga, l’un des directeurs du National Institute of Aging. « Un grand nombre de nations en Europe et en Asie sont plus avancées dans ce processus démographique ou vieillissent plus rapidement qu’aux Etats-Unis », a-t-il noté.
Le vieillissement affectant un grand nombre d’aspects de la société –soins médicaux, retraite, monde du travail, transport, logement–, il y a donc « beaucoup à apprendre potentiellement des différentes situations dans les pays », a estimé le Dr Haaga.
Aux Etats-Unis, les 65 ans et plus devraient quasiment doubler au cours des trois prochaines décennies, pour atteindre 88 millions vers 2050.
La population mondiale des plus de 80 ans devrait même tripler entre 2015 et 2050 pour atteindre 446,6 millions, contre 126,4 millions en 2015. Et l’espérance de vie à la naissance devrait augmenter de près de huit ans pour passer de 68,6 ans aujourd’hui à 76,2 ans en 2050.
Dans certains pays d’Asie et d’Amérique latine, les plus de 80 ans devraient quadrupler d’ici 2050, ont relevé les auteurs du rapport.
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Dans ces classes plus âgées, les pathologies non-transmissibles (cancers, Alzheimer…) représentent le plus lourd fardeau de santé publique. Dans les pays pauvres, dont un grand nombre en Afrique, s’ajoutent les maladies infectieuses.
La population mondiale devrait avoisiner les dix milliards d’habitants en 2050, contre 7,3 milliards en 2015, selon une analyse bisannuelle de l’Institut français d’études démographiques (Ined).
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Olivier KOUDJO
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