Au Mali, des drapeaux tricolores brûlés en manifestation. Au Burkina Faso, l’incendie d’une guérite de l’ambassade de France en marge du putsch, fin septembre, ont créé un nouveau choc. Le capitaine Traoré, désormais à la tête du pays, a seulement évoqué une possible diversification des partenariats, mais cela suffit à alimenter l’idée d’un « déclin » de la France.
L’histoire nous montre pourtant qu’il faut se méfier d’un effet loupe, au niveau temporel ou géographique. La France a en effet déjà subi des revers diplomatiques et son armée a parfois dû quitter des pays avec armes et bagages : au Mali et au Congo-Brazzaville, dès les années 1960 ; à Madagascar, en 1972-1973 ; en Centrafrique, lors des mutineries de 1996-1997, etc. Autant d’événements analysés selon une même grille de lecture décliniste, alors que personne ne conteste plus que la Françafrique y a survécu. À chaque fois, des concessions ont été faites, la présence française a été adaptée et les vecteurs d’influence réorganisés. C’est la force de la Françafrique, cette forme spécifique du colonialisme français : elle mute au gré du contexte.
Plus récemment, après le tollé provoqué en Afrique par le sauvetage du régime d’Idriss Déby au Tchad, début 2008, Nicolas Sarkozy a annoncé la refonte des contestés accords de défense liant la France à huit pays du continent. Fin 2019, Emmanuel Macron a pour sa part communiqué sur une réforme du franc CFA qui n’a en rien ébranlé ce système monétaire néocolonial de plus en plus honni. En renonçant régulièrement à certains de ses privilèges ou à une part minime de son influence, Paris a toujours fait en sorte de préserver l’essentiel : la garantie des principaux intérêts économiques et stratégiques, au moyen de puissants outils de soft power et d’interventions de l’armée française, qui conserve en 2022 son réseau de bases africaines et de coopérants militaires placés au sein de dictatures « amies ».
Il serait certes absurde de dire que tout va bien pour la France en Afrique. Mais il est assurément trop tôt pour parler de recul majeur et pour affirmer que la Françafrique serait, une fois de plus, moribonde. Le temps est même à la « reconquête » du continent, prévenait le président Macron en mai 2021 depuis l’Afrique du Sud.
La « mort » de la Françafrique, claironnée depuis quinze ans, se fracasse sur le vécu de millions d’Africains et d’Africaines qui en témoignent sur les réseaux sociaux : la constance de la politique africaine de la France aux plans militaire, économique et diplomatique alimente l’incompréhension et le ressentiment contre Paris. Une aubaine pour certains entrepreneurs du buzz qui simplifient l’analyse à outrance et s’affichent de plus en plus ouvertement comme de zélés promoteurs de la Russie et du groupe criminel Wagner.
Les discours déclinistes et le refus de principe d’examiner l’état réel de la Françafrique favorisent ainsi la concurrence des impérialismes, dans laquelle le néocolonialisme français pourrait bien perdurer une fois de plus, en dépit des colères populaires.
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